My Long term Projection for Russell 2000
Just for fun and to keep track of my “Prediction power”, let me try to forecast the long term Russell 2000 path (via its ETF IWN) in 2012.
Exact time and price do not matter! I am only interested in general structure of this movement. Its a fun exercise anyways!
Lets see if I can see the future!!! 
My Trade Setup
Previous chart seems [to my surprise] to be working out nicely.
Following will be my rough trade setup for next few weeks.
- I expect immediate bottom at ~ SPX 1040-1020 (plan to sell the BGZ and buy BGU) by Monday or Tuesday.
Then I expect SPX to rise to 1160-1200 (then buy BGZ and sell BGU) .
Peace!
Projection – SPX
- Full Stochastic still indicating downward direction.
- “Region of support” between SPX 1040-1000.
- My Ideal support at SPX 1016.
Enough said!!
Projection
WHAT DO IT SEE: Time to rollover and start going down!
- When price was down volume was up and volume started going down with increase in price => Bearish!
- Price couldn’t breach resistance at 1175, unless breached it is bearish.
- 21 EMA almost ready to crossover 34 EMA. If clearly crossed => death cross => bearish!
- Stoch still falling and no sign of turning => bearish.
Cheers!
Trend Changed
As shown by above crossover! I am pretty sure this time we have begun a down trend lasting 12-16 months!
What a FreeFall !!
- Today’s freefall in the markets was described as a “Fat Finger” event and finger being pointed to one trade in the major bank! What I don’t get is how many fingers were there??? Almost all stocks took major plunge!! To me it seems impossible to have so many bad trades!
- History has sh0wn that when the damage is done, they find a scapegoat who can be blamed for the event!!
- MY guess is that everything is fine with the “trading system” . It was a multi-stops triggered waterfall.
I observed this rally is forming a curve [See chart above] …visualize a cliff which flattens out at the top then a free fall. If this concept is true we could be bouncing off from SPX 1000-1050 range forming a 2nd shoulder of H&S pattern before taking a nose dive.
As far as my Projection goes, look at the chart.
- Today 21EMA crossed 34EMA….this will have atleast some follow through to the downside.
- Other indicators also point to the further low numbers and based on the chart I project SPX 1025-1050 (but my hunch says as low as 950-1000 …its just a hunch!! ).
Cheers!
Got no clue
- Honestly I have no clue if market will keep running higher or will start going lower.
- I am very bearish for past 6 months and it is killing my portfolio over and over again.
- At this point it is a wild guess, but I think SPX might go till 1250-1300. Or it can just rollover today/tomorrow and start the decline I was waiting for(charts look soooo overbought).
- Cycles study points to a decline phase by the end of April. Lets see if that happens!
USD coin toss
WHAT DO I SEE?
- My little knowledge of Elliott wave suggests that we are in 4th wave triangle (2nd was down wave => this must be a flat/triangle and it looks like one).
- Likely high around 83.2 by third week of March 2010 (Possible bottom time for Equities). At this time Stochastic will be topped out.
- Then fall back to 78.5. More on this later.
SPX-Heads or Tails
What a DAY!
What Do I see:
- Bullish if price goes over 1120.
- Bearish if goes below 1050.
- Likely support at 950-960 (If I have to guess exact number, it would be 958).
- Green lines are my Chart art (projections). Technical Analysis is an ART!
- ADX black line indicates trend strength but not the direction. When price was going down (from 1150 to 1050) DI- was greater than DI+ indicating the downtrend and ADX started to rise => trend was strengthening. Then ADX line reversed from about 35. While price started to rise, for a short time DI+ became greater than DI- but ADX value kept on falling suggesting that lack of uptrend strength. Now DI- is back being greater than DI+. Now if the ADX starts to rise (as shown in the image) this would make for a bearish case.
- MACD under zero, hence crossover suggest [up]correction. It has a slight hint of topping out.
- Interesting observation: Line at 1044 acted as resistance on Oct 2008 and support on 05Feb 2010. Any relation between these times or just coincidence??
What a day today!!! Every time you get excited, market makes you humble!! In the morning Bull were jumping off the window and later in the day it was bears turn.
I do have a bearish bias, but being bull is no fun either!
Cheers!
GOOGle a good short??
Google (GOOG) – A good short soon??
What do I see??
- Bearish crossover (21EMA crossed 34EMA) on Jan 22. => Bearish??
- The price backtested the 21EMA/upper limit of Bollinger band and now falling => Bearish??
- Bollinger band has not be soo tight for very long time=> Very sharp move coming??
- MACD seems to be turn back. (Not sure how to interpret the crossover). Bearish??
- VERY LITTLE participation by GOOG in market rally => Bearish??
- If GOOG goes through SP $525, can it go till SP $400??
