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Archive for February, 2010

USD coin toss

February 28, 2010 Leave a comment

WHAT DO I SEE?

  • My little knowledge of Elliott wave suggests that we are in 4th wave triangle (2nd was down wave => this must be a flat/triangle and it looks like one).
  • Likely high around 83.2 by third week of March 2010 (Possible bottom time for Equities). At this time Stochastic will be topped out.
  • Then fall back to 78.5. More on this later.
Categories: Uncategorized

SPX-Heads or Tails

February 26, 2010 2 comments

What a DAY!

What Do I see:

  • Bullish if price goes over 1120.
  • Bearish if goes below 1050.
  • Likely support at 950-960 (If I have to guess exact number, it would be 958).
  • Green lines are my Chart art (projections). Technical Analysis is an ART!
  • ADX black line indicates trend strength but not the direction. When price was going down (from 1150 to 1050)  DI- was greater than DI+ indicating the downtrend and ADX started to rise => trend was strengthening.  Then ADX line reversed from about 35. While price started to rise,  for a short time DI+ became greater than DI- but ADX value kept on falling suggesting that lack of uptrend strength. Now DI- is back being greater than DI+. Now if the ADX starts to rise (as shown in the image) this would make for a bearish case.
  • MACD under zero, hence crossover suggest [up]correction. It has a slight hint of topping out.
  • Interesting observation: Line at 1044 acted as resistance on Oct 2008 and support on 05Feb 2010. Any relation between these times or just coincidence??

What a day today!!! Every time you get excited, market makes you humble!! In the morning Bull were jumping off the window and later in the day it was bears turn.

I do have a bearish bias, but being bull is no fun either!

Cheers!

Categories: Finance Tags: , , , , , , , ,

GOOGle a good short??

February 25, 2010 1 comment

Google (GOOG) – A good short soon??

What do I see??

  • Bearish crossover (21EMA crossed 34EMA) on Jan 22. => Bearish??
  • The price backtested the 21EMA/upper limit of Bollinger band and now falling => Bearish??
  • Bollinger band has not be soo tight for very long time=> Very sharp move coming??
  • MACD seems to be turn back. (Not sure how to interpret the crossover). Bearish??
  • VERY LITTLE participation by GOOG in market rally => Bearish??
  • If GOOG goes through SP $525, can it go till SP $400??

Let see what happens !!

Categories: Finance