Archive

Archive for October, 2010

More Thoughts

October 23, 2010 Leave a comment

In SPX,

  • First drop in June 2009 was from 957.5 to 870 = 87.5 pts
  • Second drop in Jan 2010 was from 1151 to 1044 = 107 pts or 1.2 times the first
  • Third drop in Apr 2010 from 1226 to 1009 = 217pts or 2.4 times the first

 

  • Then this would imply next drop could be 3.6 times (multiple or 1.2) or 4.8 times (double of previous) the first
    • 3.6 * 87.5 = 315 pts
    • 4.8 * 87.5 = 420 pts

So from 1190 (current) level:

  • It could be 1190 – 315 = 875 , MY PREFFERED
  • or 1190 – 420 = 770
Categories: Finance

Now what?

October 22, 2010 Leave a comment

From Sep 2010 to Oct 2010

Dollar (UUP) fell:  (24.2-22.2)/24.2 = 8.2%

SPY rose: (119 .13-104.31)/104.31 = 14.2%

Assuming a inverse relation, 1% drop in UUP lead to 1.73% rise in SPY!!!

So if UUP were to retrace 38.2% of the fall from June 2010 => it will reach 23.64  => rise of  6.6% rise in UUP => 6.6*1.73 = 11.22% fall in SPY =>  119.13(1-.1122) = 105.7 on SPY

Its a guess but my roadmap will be:

  • All the indicators are overbought, $NYSI has turned. Sooner than later we shall see a correction.
  •  So (if we fall from here) I am guessing that SPX  1060 or more (1057 to be precise) into November 2010.  
  • Another strong contender for support is at SPX 885 based on a lot of Fibonacci confluence. This will be equivalent to UUP retracing alomost all the move from June 2010 to 25.5  or up by 14.82%.

Lets see what really happens.

Categories: Finance

Quintuple top??

October 20, 2010 Leave a comment

Five attempts to break-through 1180 level in SPX futures!!!  It must be tired now!!!! So now top is in??? Lets see!

Categories: Finance

SPY Channel Breakout

October 13, 2010 Leave a comment

So…DJIA transport indication  did’nt work. Strike one!

SPY broke out of the channel Strike two.

I really thought top was in! I guess better luck next time!

Now what????

>>> Retest of upper channel line??

>>> Break below lower channel and we get our downtrend!

Categories: Finance

SPY Channel

October 12, 2010 Leave a comment

Need to break bottom of the channel for downtrend.

Categories: Finance

Time we go down….say Dow Transport

October 12, 2010 1 comment

 

One Minute chart of Dow Transport.  Retest twice. (First flat price level then uptrend).

So….shall we go down or not!!

Categories: Finance