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More Thoughts

In SPX,

  • First drop in June 2009 was from 957.5 to 870 = 87.5 pts
  • Second drop in Jan 2010 was from 1151 to 1044 = 107 pts or 1.2 times the first
  • Third drop in Apr 2010 from 1226 to 1009 = 217pts or 2.4 times the first

 

  • Then this would imply next drop could be 3.6 times (multiple or 1.2) or 4.8 times (double of previous) the first
    • 3.6 * 87.5 = 315 pts
    • 4.8 * 87.5 = 420 pts

So from 1190 (current) level:

  • It could be 1190 – 315 = 875 , MY PREFFERED
  • or 1190 – 420 = 770
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Categories: Finance
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